September 2004
From the Editor: The end of an era?

Are horizontal trade shows dead? That seems to be the question in the general press. The news about the postponement of COMDEX was picked up by all of the major media outlets. And most of the coverage wasn’t flattering. Although there were a few stories about exhibitors lamenting the demise of the once grand event, most focused on the death of horizontal trade shows. Is this a tech anomaly or a bigger industry problem?

According to Computer Event Marketing Association (CEMA) Trends in the Event Industry study, nearly 70 percent of IT exhibitors are increasing their participation in smaller vertical events in 2004 and 2005. On the other hand, nearly 40 percent are decreasing their participation in larger horizontal IT trade shows. This news isn’t surprising, especially given that four tech shows (three of which were horizontal events) were cancelled or postponed this summer (see Show Business, page 11 of the September 2004 issue).

Part of the problem is shortened budget cycles. Despite the fact that marketing budgets will most likely increase in 2005, many exhibitors — at least on the IT side — will still only be able to commit that money on a quarterly basis. The good news: Trade show budgets increased 11 percent from 2003 to 2004, according to the Exhibitor magazine Salary Survey (see Show Business, page 11 of the September 2004). In 2004, the average trade show budget is $696,951.

At the same time, horizontal shows work in some industries. In fact, Reed’s National Hardware Show and AHMA’s Hardware Show are both pushing to become more horizontal (see Behind the Hardware Breakup). And CES is a prime example of a thriving horizontal show. So what sets them apart? Lots of things. The buyers, the industry, the sense of community, the association, the partnerships, the new technology, the buzz. It isn’t just one thing. There’s no magic bullet for producing successful horizontal events. And there’s not one thing that killed COMDEX.

Many people predict that large, horizontal shows will thrive once the economy is strong. They say companies will have a need for branding opportunities, and they won’t be as focused on the buyer. Regardless, I think we’ll see a trend toward big shows going for a small-show feel, with a more personalized experience for exhibitors and attendees. 

Obviously, horizontal shows aren’t dead. And there are plenty of vertical shows doing well too. In fact, the industry as whole is expected to grow a modest 2.4 percent in 2004 (See B2B Communications Trends & Forecast).

The lesson here for all of us, regardless of show type, is that what works one year may not work the next. And what works for one industry may not work for another. We have to tailor our events to the needs of our exhibitors and attendees. And we have to remember that our audiences and the markets we serve are constantly evolving. It’s not just a tech thing.